October 25, 2024
Some commentators wrote that this blog, and others, have neglected the current BRICS summit. They are right to a point.
BRICS is a long term project. It is the development of an economic and political conglomerate of supernational organizations designed to be an alternative to the ones created by the 'West' after the second word war.
There are several misunderstandings and a lot of wishful thinking about BRICS in alternative media.
BRICS will not replace the U.S. dollar. Any short term plan to replace of the currently most important global medium of financial transactions (not of real stuff trade) is unrealistic. Yves at Naked Capitalism has written several pieces to lay that out.
BRICS is not a military alliance. Iran joining BRICS does not mean that Russia or China or anyone else will come to its defense should the U.S./Israel attack the country. While they would probably provide some help in the background both will likely avoid any direct involvement.
Building BRICS will take several decades. Ad hoc reporting of and commentating one of its summits is not of much value without detailing the larger contexts. It will do that whenever the subject deserves it.
During the current BRICS session the most sensational issue with long term consequences actually happened shortly before the summit.
India has dropped the U.S. friendly anti-China policies it had implemented during the first two terms of the Modi government. It is (again) making nice with China and Russia while shunning U.S. attempts to make it a sidekick for U.S. policies in Asia.
This piece in Asia Times provides the background:
India and China have recently agreed to disengage from their prolonged border standoff in the western sector of the India-China Himalayan border on the sidelines of 16th BRICS summit. Tensions have simmered since June 15, 2020, after 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers were killed in a high-mountain clash.
...
On the geopolitical front, meanwhile, India lost significantly. It once viewed South Asia and the Indian Ocean as its traditional sphere of influence, but after becoming a US ally, none of its neighboring countries remain within its sphere. Instead, India has arguably become more of a subordinate ally to the US.
...
This was evident when the US conducted a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOPS) in the Indian Ocean on April 7, 2021, which sparked a strong backlash in Indian media and academia, despite India being a US partner. Additionally, the US has been accused of fueling anti-India sentiment in neighboring countries and covertly helping to oust pro-Indian governments in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives. [The author leaves out the recent U.S. coup in Bangladesh - b]
This made India realize that the US expects it to relinquish its “strategic autonomy” and that India’s claims to a regional sphere of influence in South Asia are unacceptable to Washington.
...
Ultimately, after four years of experimenting with foreign policy, the Modi government came to understand that China’s cooperation is essential for India’s economic development. The prime minister’s economic adviser argued that China would likely refrain from interfering in India’s border issues due to its dependence on India, coupled with the prospect of increased Chinese investment.
...
The first and second terms of Modi’s government have marked one of the worst decades in India’s history in regard to international relations. During this period, India has incurred unprecedented opportunity costs while experimenting with international and geopolitical strategies. In his third term, Modi is looking to reverse the course by shifting from the US to China.
The piece argues correctly that it was U.S. arrogance towards India which has caused this change.
India's making nice with China, and its shunning of the U.S., is an immense geopolitical shift. The two biggest countries of this planet by populations plus Russia, the biggest country by landmass, are again friendly to each other. They will coordinate their moves wherever it is in their tri-lateral interest.
This shift in relations will have similar huge consequences as the recent reestablishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
This is a disaster for the U.S. 'pivot to Asia'.
But U.S. and other 'western' media, have barely reported on it.
Posted by b on October 25, 2024 at 10:27 UTC | Permalink